There are early signs that China's appetite for overseas oil, copper, aluminium, iron ore and coal will recover in the second half of 2011, having been dogged for much of the first half by the government's campaign to put the brakes on growth and inflation.
Higher seasonal demand, shrinking stockpiles and a narrowing gap between domestic and LME prices indicate that China's copper demand may be turning a corner, even if Beijing doesn't relax its tightening stance.
"Industry cross-checks show that there has been significant destocking for copper and others such as iron ore and coal," said Andrew Driscoll, a Hong Kong-based commodities analyst at CLSA.
"Should inflation be reined in, which we expect it would be, then we should see restocking activity fed by a recovery in imports in around the third quarter."
Copper imports in China, the world's second-largest producer after Chile, slumped 21 percent from a year ago to 596,000 tonnes in the first quarter and tumbled another 48.3 percent in April as the arbitrage window was closed.
Imports of LME-priced copper are now about 1,100 yuan more expensive than domestic supplies, down from 1,500 yuan at end-April, based on Reuters calculations, making it unprofitable to bring in material.
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