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Friday, June 17, 2011

China’s Biggest Economic Challenges

China’s biggest economic challenges are political in nature and daunting, and will almost certainly get worse. That is because its autocratic system, for all the stability it has provided, will struggle to handle the sustained economic slowdown the country is likely to confront during this decade.


Reports of rioting by migrant workers in the southern manufacturing province of Guangdong this week are a reminder of how much is at stake in the years ahead. The protests that break out routinely across China are tiny compared with the upheaval that could erupt if growth slows and the political system is unable to cope. And social unrest is only one of the risks China will face when it can no longer grow its way out of every problem.

Much of the news out of China tends to focus instead on shorter-term risks, or on manageable problems that seem unrelated to one another. Accounting issues, for example, have increased doubts about China’s listed firms. Meanwhile, the authorities’ latest efforts to rein in credit -- announced this week along with more news of rising inflation worry those who fear a hard landing for property construction.

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