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Sunday, February 28, 2010

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Weekly Fundamental Outlook for Energies and Metals.

A Long Way to Go Before Crude can Sustainably Hold Above 80.

Weak US economic data and potential downgrade in Greece's credit rating pressured commodities last week. On Friday, stronger-than-expected US GDP boosted market sentiment and lifted prices again.

The first revision to fourth quarter GDP was revised higher, from 5.7% to 5.9%.

Real growth may be running around 2%. But the government has, and will continue to support the economy. That should keep us looking for upside for stocks, even though the economy is basically crushed.

Investors seem to think oil and other commodities are priced in dollars, as the relative value of the dollar falls the price of oil and other commodities will rise. The relationship makes sense. And for much of last year, it was actually working, but now times have changed.

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