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Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Gold Traders Has Been Quite Restrained

Fortunately, the return to bullishness among gold traders has been quite restrained. As long as the timers only begrudgingly turn bullish in the face of a strong market, contrarians will continue to give gold’s rally the benefit of the doubt.

Consider the average recommended gold exposure among a subset of the shortest-term gold timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI). This average currently stands at just 20.3%, which means that the average gold timer is currently allocating nearly 80% of his or her gold portfolio to cash.

In fact, even though gold closed Monday within 10 dollars of its previous all-time high, the HGNSI currently stands 53 percentage points below where it stood when gold hit that earlier high.

This all suggests to contrarians that gold has good odds of soon trading at a new all-time high. How far bullion is able to push into new-high territory will depend in no small part by how quickly the gold traders then choose to jump on the bullish bandwagon.

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