Crude oil and gold will lead a rally in commodities as production fails to keep pace with demand, said Ray Eyles, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)’s commodity business in Asia.
Oil supply will trail consumption in the second half as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers won’t increase output fast enough, the bank said in a report May 6. Rabobank Groep expects shortages in corn and cotton this year while Barclays Capital is predicting deficits in copper, nickel, tin, lead and platinum.
Crude has more than tripled since December 2008 and gold doubled, with the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities beating stocks, bonds and the dollar for five straight months through April, the longest run in at least 14 years. That kept global food costs near a record, prompting central banks from Brasilia to Beijing to raise interest rates and helping spur conflict and riots in the Middle East and North Africa.
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