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Thursday, May 26, 2011

Copper Imports May Rise

"Copper imports may rise as early as the second half," said Zhu Bin, chief analyst at Nanhua Futures. Aluminum exports would fall and imports also rise after production cuts and expected local stock drawdowns, he added.

China has substantial stocks to work through, according to estimates from trade sources and analysts. Those estimates peg bonded copper stocks held in China at more than 400,000 tones, along with more than 600,000 tones of aluminum ingots, 500,000 tones of refined lead and over 1 million tones of refined zinc.

Imports could continue to surge in 2012 if stocks are drawn down during power cuts, analysts said. If China ends its monetary tightening cycle, conditions may also be more favorable for imports, analysts said.

"Power shortages in China should be a price positive for metals, as power cuts tend to have a bigger effect on production than demand and thus, at the margin, tighten the underlying market balance," Barclays Capital said in a note.

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